An additional 100,000 elective operations could be cancelled in England this winter as a result of the Omicron wave leading to increased hospital admissions, reveals a modelling study published as a peer-reviewed research letter in The Lancet. The study, led by researchers at the University of Birmingham, using NHS England data from September 2020 to July 2021, finds that the number of elective operations performed each week is closely related to the number of patients in hospitals with COVID-19.

The researchers estimate that, in the first two weeks of October 2021, the volume of elective operations in England was reduced by 21.9 percent —a drop of 14,348 operations per week– compared to the pre-pandemic period. However, if the number of patients in hospital in England with COVID-19 increases to the levels seen in the first COVID-19 wave in April 2020, the volume of elective operations in England would be cut by 33.9% (a drop of 22,147 operations per week) compared to pre-pandemic. This means that an increase in the number of COVID-19 admissions from October 2021 to April 2020 levels would result in 100,273 fewer elective operations performed over the three winter months ie. December 2021 to February 2022, the study said.