Weather and climate predictions are done by difficult and complex mathematical equations that have nonlinear terms in their governing equations. And the prediction of these nonlinear equations is very challenging since the output is dependent upon the initial input and different factors that evolve every second. For example The weather of the next minute depends upon the temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, etc on the planet at that instance. These kinds of equations are called Navier-Stokes equations (climate and weather). Predicting the spread of infectious diseases is also the same kind of process. Infectious diseases occur due to the interaction and development of pathogens, humans, and the environment. The goal of these pathogens is to not kill us but just reside and grow inside our bodies. Since these pathogens are unlike the cells in our body, our body’s response to them is extremely aggressive. And these actions of cells cause symptoms and problems due to which we eventually die.
Predicting the spread of infectious diseases is done by a model that divides the population into Susceptible, Infectious, and Removed (SIR) or Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed (SEIR). Even the mathematical equations that arrange people through these boxes are nonlinear which makes it very difficult to predict the progression of the contagion. We do need the initial population that isn’t always available in every box. These models aren’t always accurate since the factors such as environmental circumstances, intervention measures and demographics keep on changing and affecting the numbers of the equation continuously. Although it isn’t the most accurate way to predict the spread of infectious disease, it still is our best shot. This model was also used during SARS, H1N1, and Ebola. Even though this model is shooting at an unstable target, it still helps to aim better at the same time.
The above model isn’t the only approach towards predicting the spread of infectious diseases. It is sure that the so far outbreak of coronaviruses – Sars-CoV, Mers-CoV, and Sars-CoV-2, were the viruses that were transferred through anThe WHO said the disease epidemic is the product of a complex network of human behavior and ecosystem that involves animals and forests. Many experts believe that when humans tear down forests to accommodate space for the growing population, they unknowingly bump against an army of anonymous animals. When we build farmland and houses on this deforested land, we come into contact with such viruses.
Veterinary Epidemiologist Dirk Pfeiffer said, “These spillovers have always happened but it’s our activities that are changing things.” Through human actions, it has caused an imbalance and is getting closer to the forest and the wild animals and pathogens that we have no knowledge about before. A team of experts used statistical models to estimate the total number of unknown animal viruses, which reached up to 1.7 million. The World Health Organization has already pointed out, even before the COVID-19 pandemic started, that the 21st century is a “long period of scourges.”
